The Myth of Plummeting Female Sexual Market Value

October 15, 2013

A reader shared this bit of male wishful thinking about female sexual market value. It was apparently cooked up by a typically disgruntled and sexually frustrated older male licking his mating wounds.


It’s easy to see why this appeals to the 30-something guy who feels like a mating failure. The female’s sexual attractiveness peaks at the ripe old age of 16.5, and by 20, her sexual market value is plummeting. By the age of 33, she’s flunking miserably with only 25% of her mojo left!

Oddly, her sexual value decreases slowly after that, with little decrease at all after age 55 – whoo hoo. Of course, there’s not much room left for decline – she’s at a measly 3% by then. A dried up and withered old crone. This might be understandable if it represented the singular preference of one pedo male at one point in time, but makes little sense as an absolute portrayal of sexual market value. At 37, for example, she is likely to receive very different ratings from men aged 17 and 57. 

In contrast, the male spends a lot more time in the upper range. He peaks at 31, and doesn’t begin to lose sexual steaminess until age 36 or so. He doesn’t fall to the ignominious 3% until age 73, implying he should have no trouble attracting a woman of 55 at that age. Yeah, no.

Here’s another creepy version:


(Note: these and similar graphs are widely published on “red pill Game” sites.)

Again, notice the female’s attractiveness falling off a cliff by age 20, and the explicit preference for “jailbait” expressed.

What’s wrong with this analysis? 

1. Female fertility does not begin to decline until age 27.

Since, male attraction cues are directly tied to female fertility and define female beauty, a female’s sexual value should not decline at all before her fertility does. (Scientific American)

2. Fertility declines very gradually between the ages of 27 and 35.

In a study of 782 couples:

They found that women between the ages of 19 and 26 with partners of similar age had approximately a 50 percent chance of becoming pregnant during any one menstrual cycle if they had intercourse two days prior to ovulation. For women aged 27 to 34, the chance was 40 percent.

3. Fertility declines more dramatically after 35.

Even then, female fertility hardly goes to zero:

For women over the age of 35, the probability dropped to 30 percent. 

Notice how the male sexual value begins its precipitous drop at around 36, after declining gradually for five years. Not much difference.

The study further found that both partners contribute to the increased time necessary to conceive because men’s fertility also declines with age, though not as early as it does for women. When the team controlled for the age of women, they found that fertility was significantly reduced for men older than 35.

The Statistician Speaks

These sorts of graphs reflect aging male fantasy – a sort of 50 Shades of Bray. Enter Kelly, a PhD statistician who takes the top chart apart with math:

This is never going to make an impact, but as a PhD statistician I am going to tell you why all this red pill crap is wrong. Women peak sooner, but men have a broader peak.

1. Those graphs are wrong because, with a fixed number of people in the world, equal between the sexes, you have to scale the curves so that the area under each one is the same.

2. The top valued man is not a “10,” ever…He is downgraded by competition in the market.

He’s some relatively lower value scaled by the fact that men’s sexual prime lasts longer. Why is this, for the non math geniuses out there? Because if there are 50 men who are 7.5′s, and there are only 30 women, then men’s actual score and actual value on the dating market is downgraded because he can’t just choose a 7.5 and take her. 

3. There are even more men competing for the same women.

     a. Not only does the male curve have a broader prime, and therefore more area, there is another factor at play – women hit menopause around 55, but most men want to keep having sex into their 70′s.

     b. Consider that “alpha” males often have several girlfriends, taking more off the market. And women are out of the game for longer to recover from being dumped.

     c. Women are more likely to focus on their kids after divorce and stay out of the dating market.

     d. There is even less area under the female curve because the super attractive part up until age 18 is not even legal for sex.

This all serves to downgrade men’s real value on the dating market.

So take that blue curve, and shrink it until the area underneath is the same as the area underneath the women’s curve. This is why women tend to date men 5 years or so older, rather than 16 years older. A lot of this red pill stuff is wishful thinking. There is a little truth to it, but the relative lesser availability of women overall makes it a weaker effect.

If you looked at the curve and said to yourself, “I am going to be a 10 at age 36!” you are probably only going to be a 7.5 because your whole curve has shrunk, due to you competing with a whole lot of men. There is a giant tranche of men who are 6′s and 7′s who are going to be competing for a much smaller tranche of 6-7 level of sexual attractiveness in women. Many will have to either settle or be alone. 

So that’s the red pill for you. Enjoy it!

There are excellent reasons to seriously begin looking for your future husband once you reach your early 20s. The most marriageable men tend to get snapped up early. And of course, many more men date women a few years younger than vice versa. Competition from females will only increase as you age.

But don’t let anyone tell you that your sexual value plummets at 20, or even hits a wall at 30. It’s just a scare tactic. 

With the average age of marriage at 27 for women and still climbing, you have time. You certainly shouldn’t settle for some deluded guy trying to convince you that you’re running out of options.

In my experience, it’s possible to feel sexually attractive, and be perceived as such, well into your 50s. 😛